How often should you bluff in poker?

It depends on bet size. Game theory suggests that on the river, a pot-sized bet should be a bluff about one time in three, so the opponent's calls break even. Against players who rarely fold, bluff less.

Strategy and math

Bluff

A bet or raise with a weak hand, intended to make better hands fold.

A bluff only needs to work part of the time to be profitable. A pot-sized bluff breaks even if it succeeds 50% of the time; a half-pot bluff needs to work only 33% of the time.

Good bluffs tell a believable story: the cards that came and your earlier actions should match the strong hand you are representing.

Questions players ask

How often should you bluff in poker?: It depends on bet size. Game theory suggests that on the river, a pot-sized bet should be a bluff about one time in three, so the opponent's calls break even. Against players who rarely fold, bluff less.